With Spring Training getting set to start sooner rather than later, the season projections have began to become public. Â With the additions the Cardinals made in the offseason there is hope for improvement from last years disappointment. Â They secured their lead off man and CF with Fowler and signed a veteran reliever, who happens to be a needed lefty with the loss of Duke, in Brett Cecil, both of which are nice additions. Â You also have to figure in the return of Lance Lynn. Â He is coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he has been a horse for this club for years and there is no reason to think he can’t come back to form. Â If not, well, the Cardinals strongest feature is the amount of depth they have for starting pitchers, both in the majors and minors. Â Reyes joining the rotation for a full season and the notion that Waino and Rosenthal will be back to form, are even more reasons for the club to be optimistic. Â So the question that keeps floating around in my mind? Â Why is PECOTA projecting a 76-86 record for a team that always seems to find their way into the playoff hunt?
PECOTA is a projection system created by Nate Silver in the beginning part of the 2000’s. Â It was created to be used for Baseball Prospectus, but since then has been upgraded through the years. Â It’s used to project what kind of season an individual player, along with teams as a whole will fair during the course of a Major League season. Â PECOTA stands for: Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Â It basically uses methods to find players comparable to each other to predict what kind of season they will have. Â Taking a saber-metrical course to evaluate 30 teams with 25+ major components to come to a conclusion on how any number of individuals will react and perform in an instinct based game is nothing more than a NFL analyst giving his score projections for that week in football…a guess, and nothing more. Â We all can make our educated guesses about certain outcomes in any number of different activities, but it will never be factual, just a guess. Â Of course the “logical” computer program they use is incapable of measuring will, heart, all the little things that push a player to exceed what expectations have been set before him. Â Mid-season, unexpected tragedies, or miracles can happen, can a computer factor these types of occurrences into their projections? Â Nope. Â That is why these predictions have to be taken with a grain of salt. Â In 2015, PECOTA projected the Cardinals to have an 89-73 season. Remember the 100-62 season that actually happened?
The Cardinals have a lot of “ifs” preceding the 2017 season and maybe this has made an impact on the PECOTA prediction. Â A miserable defense was directly linked to, if not, the main reason the Cardinals didn’t make the playoffs and what has changed behind the starting pitchers? Â The same personnel will man the same positions they did, for the most part, as last season. Â Have they improved defensively? Â Not on paper, but a computer can’t see if the players put in the work and improved. Â Plus, the rotation is packed with a more strikeout prone staff, when last year the pitchers pitched more to contact, so a drastic improvement may not be necessary (but an improvement will be). Speaking of starting pitchers. Â Lynn coming back to his 2015 form, along with Waino, Leake improving, and Reyes becoming the rookie of the year everyone in St. Louis is rooting for aren’t exactly locks. Â Just remember Cardinals fans, this is a computer, not a person, a Cubs fan, or a grudge holder, and anyone who can take seriously anything that projects Mike Leake as the Cardinals most valuable pitcher needs to calm down. Â This is St. Louis, the people know what this organization is capable of, especially with a chip on their shoulder. Â I say let the projections come. Â They don’t discourage me and it shouldn’t get to the fans in this city. Â Find me between mid-June and the trade deadline, when we will all know what this team is really made of.